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No longer bitter.

Baseball Prospectus FINAL

No longer under the spell of Jeff Mathis. No longer opposed to sabermetrics.


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No longer reluctant to play their young talent. No longer afraid to change.

Results tagged ‘ Baseball Prospectus ’

After making his first three starts of the season, Dallas Braden was headed back to the after shoulder surgery. When healthy, Braden made his bones on deception and location, getting ahead in counts with a mids fastball that could touch the upper 80s when he reached back for it! His change plays well off the fastball with both velocity separation and late movement to the arm-side. Braden pitches with the confidence of a flamethrower, despite an arsenal with the intensity of a Disney movie. As a pitcher with a small margin of error to begin with, any residual effect from the shoulder surgery could spell curtains for his major league run.

The Great Man theory would posit Miguel Olivo accomplished something historical in he led his team in runs batted in, despite posting one of the dozen worst OBPs in post-Deadball Era history. Only a truly elite hacker could be both his team's most and least productive hitter, and Olivo is that hacker. He swings at nearly half of all pitches outside the strike zone. He swings at more than half the sliders he sees, and half the curves, and nearly two-thirds of a changeups, and 80 percent of splitters.

Baseball Prospectus « Baseball Nerd

He's a generational hacker. The Phillies had the oldest hitters in the league last year by more than 15 months. Over a certain time horizon, the process of locking every core player up in a long-term deal is the equivalent of nailing down the deck chairs on the Titanic. Even if you could guarantee that Chase Utley would be a Phillie forever, could you stomach watching the poor, hipless guy run out to second base every day?

The cumulative effect of the extensions doled out to guys like Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins is that the team has remained largely the same, but older and more expensive. Here at BP, we have an injury database that shows the history for each player's maladies.

Baseball Prospectus 2012

Under Jose Reyes, the word "hamstring" appears 11 times, including two entries in that cost him more than a month's worth of games. He won the batting title last year—offending many by taking himself out of the last game of the season following a bunt single in the first inning—but this is still a player who has averaged just 98 games in the last three years, and the only way he stayed healthy in the second half of was to simply stop running.

Before the All-Star break, Reyes had 15 triples and 30 stolen bases. After, he had just one and nine, respectively. The Marlins believed enough in Reyes's health to sign him for the next six years, bumping incumbent All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez to third base in the process. Finding a harmony between the scouting reports and defensive metrics about Freddie Freeman is impossible. Folks who watched Freeman know about his picking-and-scooping abilities as well as his strong arm, characteristics that fan the flames of contention. Freeman's offensive output is less controversial.

He became the youngest first baseman in club history to belt plus home runs during the regular season, and produced at rates better than league-average. The downsides to Freeman's season at the plate were his strikeouts more than expected , issues against left-handed pitching, and wayward plate discipline. Still, receiving as much offense as the Braves did from a year-old in his freshman campaign is a blessing more than a curse.

The big question is whether Freeman will be worthy of the Captain Marvel Jr. We blame House for this. Somewhere along the line jerks across America decided that they were just like the misanthropic physician—their brilliance and otherworldly excellence at work both created and somehow permitted their being a complete psychopathic tool.

It might be true for a fictional character but that guy at your office is really just a gaper. For Bryce Harper that side of it is overblown. He gets attention for showing up an opponent who instigated it earlier in the game. He gets attention for buying eyeblack in bulk at Sam's Club and smearing it all over himself. But mostly what he gets attention for is hitting the snot out of the ball. And he's going to do that in spades. For a very long time. Remember the cool Jason Bay? The guy every team wanted at the trade deadline and the guy who hit 36 home runs and drew 94 walks in ?

That's the player the Mets paid for, but injuries have aged him before our very eyes. His bat has slowed down considerably and he's become a stiff, almost laughably bad defensive player. Three days after winning Game Seven, Tony La Russa, the third-winningest manager in major-league history and the Cardinals skipper since , retired. In between those two franchise-altering departures, scouting director Jeff Luhnow left to become the new general manager of the Houston Astros. It was as if every dream and nightmare came true for the Cardinals over the course of 11 months.


  • Baseball Prospectus Names its Top 20 Cubs Prospects for 2012?
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  • Deciding that a fat first baseman is more easily replaced at considerably less cost than the team's other great slugging star or one of the best second basemen in baseball seems like an eminently sensible choice, even before getting into whether Mat Gamel's time is now. That kind of bloodless calculus might prove to be a form of thrifty solace to Brewers fans worried about their team's post-Prince Fielder future, even if they don't make movies about it.

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    On the list of mistakes you can't afford, throwing down eight mil for an innings-eating junk-baller is one of those legacy misjudgments, the sort of decision that might have flown during the naughty Aughties, but ends up being a crippling budget-buster nowadays. If there's anything Theo Epstein and Jim Hendry have in common it's a history of poor contract decisions.

    Despite overseeing the Cubs' first back-to-back winning seasons in more than 30 years in , Hendry's tenure as Cubs GM will most likely be remembered for the mammoth mistakes he made with Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano. One day, one glorious day, the Pirates will return to the postseason, driven by their talented youngsters and years of hard work. When will the curtain go up on the Pirates in October?

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    See our disclaimer. The bestselling annual baseball preview from the smartest analysts in the business The essential guide to the baseball season is on deck now, and whether you're a fan or fantasy player—or both—you won't be properly informed without it. Contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams Projects each player's stats for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, which has been called "perhaps the game's most accurate projection model" Sports Illustrated From Baseball Prospectus, America's leading provider of statistical analysis for baseball Now in its seventeenth edition, this New York Times bestselling insider's guide remains hands down the most authoritative and entertaining book of its kind.

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